Tesla Cybertruck Would possibly Already Be Passing Ford F-150 Lightning & Rivian R1T — Truck Wars Over?

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I wrote a few days in the past that Tesla produced 1,000 Cybertrucks one week final month. It’s a notable milestone, but when that was the output each week this 12 months, that may nonetheless simply be a bit of greater than 50,000 vans. Although, a reader pointed one thing out I hadn’t caught — at 1,000 models per week, it’s most likely already beating the Ford F-150 Lightning. It’s additionally already beating the Rivian R1T.

We’ll have to attend for Q2 numbers to return in, and there have been some problems not too long ago — Ford paused manufacturing of the F-150 Lightning for a bit, and Tesla paused manufacturing of the Cybertruck whereas coping with an accelerator pedal recall. Nevertheless, latest numbers do present some issues to think about.

Within the 4th quarter of 2023, Ford offered 11,905 models of the F-150 Lightning. Within the 1st quarter of this 12 months, although, the whole was 7,743 Lightnings. Naturally, with about 13 weeks in 1 / 4, if Tesla will get to a median of 1,000 Cybertrucks per week, that’s 13,000 in 1 / 4. With Tesla saying that Cybertruck manufacturing capability is slowly however steadily ramping up, a median of 1,000 models per week within the 2nd quarter appears very potential.

After all, Ford might additionally ramp up manufacturing and gross sales of the F-150 Lightning. Although, with the drop from the 4th quarter to the first quarter and Ford CEO Jim Farley not too long ago speaking about challenges promoting as many EVs as they wished, that appears unlikely. A hopeful goal would possibly simply be reaching that This fall determine once more. After all, I’ve a lot larger hopes for the Ford F-150 Lightning because of all of its advantages over a standard Ford F-150 and the way fashionable that mannequin is, however apparently there are nonetheless important struggles breaking by means of to standard truck patrons.

As for the Cybertruck, I assume it’ll get ramped as much as nicely past 1,000 models per week, and maybe even to 2,000 models per week by summer season, so I count on it’ll take the lead within the 2nd quarter. Total, like a reader, John Donovan, mentioned, I’m guessing Tesla will promote round 100,000 Cybertrucks this 12 months. In line with Tesla’s shareholder letter printed this week, primarily based on the manufacturing gear in place, they count on that they’ve manufacturing capability for >125,000 Cybertrucks a 12 months for the time being (all on the gigafactory in Texas). That doesn’t imply they’re able to produce that many in a 12 months, in fact — simply that the manufacturing gear and area are there. Elon Musk beforehand forecasted demand for about 150,000 Cybertrucks a 12 months. We’ll see, however Tesla could also be nicely on its method to that concentrate on by the top of 2024.

So far as a forecast for the Ford F-150 Lightning or Rivian R1T? It’s very laborious to guess. However I feel it’s very doubtless the Cybertruck wins the “electrical truck wars” this 12 months, and it’s laborious to inform when Ford’s clients and executives or Rivian’s clients and executives will be capable of carry gross sales as much as 100,000+ a 12 months. Hopefully quickly!