New Zealand EV Market Seeks New Regular — Dips to 4.1%

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Is it too early to inform the place the New Zealand electrical car market will settle within the medium to long run? I hope so, because the figures from February are barely worse than these of January 2024. We’re nonetheless ready for a restoration from modifications in authorities coverage.

James from EVdb describes the February numbers as “subdued,” at round 4.1% of all gentle autos. The sedan market was extra encouraging at 8.9% penetration. We want extra electrical utes! This penetration price is way decrease than the 2023 common of slightly over 27%.

747 plug-in autos had been added to the New Zealand fleet in February 2024, 482 BEVs (double January’s numbers) and 265 PHEVs (about the identical as in January). That’s out of a complete of 18,094 gentle autos (once more, double January’s numbers). EV numbers are rising, however not on the similar price because the fossil fuelled portion of the market.

It seems to be like Jacinda Ardern’s plan to make New Zealand the Norway of the Pacific is struggling a setback. Authorities coverage does make a distinction. James tells us that, “As of the tip of February 2024, there are over 73,000 totally electrical gentle autos (plus virtually 31,000 plug-in hybrids)” on New Zealand roads. Plug-in autos now make up slightly over 2% of the on-road fleet. He calls the tip of the clear automotive low cost, coupled with the introduction of the Highway Consumer Cost, a “one, two punch” that alerts to the market “shopping for an EV is a dumb thought.” As such, it could take greater than 1 / 4 to determine the brand new regular within the NZ EV market.

Though nonetheless low, this degree of fleet penetration is resulting in a name for extra mechanics skilled to work with electrical autos. Who do you name in case your EV has an issue? A mechanic, an electrician, or a software program engineer? As EVs age, there will probably be a must develop on the talents of these known as to restore them.

Martin Grzelka, an electrical car coaching marketing consultant working with dealerships in New Zealand, tells us: “If somebody shouldn’t be properly skilled on the know-how, the technician doesn’t actually know what to search for and easy methods to diagnose sure issues as know-how has modified, the misdiagnosis could be a pricey factor.”

My ideas are that plug-less hybrids have been out there for the previous 20 years and the talents in repairing them needs to be transferable to BEVs and definitely to PHEVs. All coaching must be present with each the brand new and the outdated know-how — this isn’t simply a difficulty with EVs.

The highest 10 finest promoting battery electrical autos bought in New Zealand in February 2024 had been:

1. Tesla Mannequin Y (145 — 12 months so far, 170)
2. BYD Atto 3 (23 — 12 months so far, 28)
3. Ford Mustang Mach-e (20 — 12 months so far, 29)
4. Kia EV6 (17 — 12 months so far, 19)
5. Audi e-tron GT (14 — 12 months so far, 14)
6. BYD Seal (13 — 12 months so far, 43)
7. Hyundai Ioniq 5 (12 — 12 months so far, 14)
8. MG4 (12 — 12 months so far, 24)
9. Kia EV9 (9 — 12 months so far, 17)
10. Toyota BZ4X (9 — 12 months so far, 32)

BMW appears to have fallen off the chart, as has the Subaru Solterra (solely promoting 6 items final month). I might count on the chart above to replicate New Zealand’s EV imports extra in truth than January’s high 10 figures. BYD’s numbers ought to decide up, particularly as extra items of the “inexpensive” Dolphin arrive — just one bought in February.

New Zealand has sturdy used automotive import business, with 90 used EVs imported. Nissan Leaf numbers doubled month on month. Used BEVs will not be included within the high ten figures above, however they’re as follows: 69 Nissan Leafs; 5 Tesla Mannequin S; 3 Peugeot 2008; 2 Tesla Mannequin X; 2 Nissan e-NV200; 2 Nissan Sakura; 2 Audi e-tron; 2 Jaguar i-PACE; 1 Renault Zoe; 1 Mazda MX30; 1 Peugeot e-208. No hydrogen vehicles had been bought.

The rostrum is occupied by the same old suspects, with the gold going to Tesla, the silver to BYD, and the bronze to Kia. As within the international race, the problem is to fill the third spot. Tesla has a commanding lead with 42% market share, BYD lags behind this month with 10%, and Kia is nipping at its heels with 8% market share.

The 8 high promoting plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in February 2024 had been:

1. Mitsubishi Outlander (42 — 12 months so far, 52)
2. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (22 — 12 months so far, 40)
3. Mini Countryman (16 — 12 months so far, 30)
4. Porsche Cayenne (12 — 12 months so far, 36)
5. Land Rover Defender (8 — 12 months so far, 21)
6. Lexus NX (7 — 12 months so far, 15)
7. Volkswagen Tuareg (6 — 12 months so far, 20)
8. BMW X3 — 6

Mini has gone again to December figures. And for individuals who must know, there was one Bentley Flying Spur PHEV bought. The Bentley comes with the choice of a PHEV incorporating a 2.9 litre V6 engine. If it is advisable ask the value, you clearly can not afford it! In February, 1890 (this a quantity, not a 12 months!) plug-less hybrids took 32% of the New Zealand market, primarily Toyota RAV4s. It’s value noting that Toyota solely bought 39 items that ran on petrol alone and 97 on diesel. HEVs are doing their half to scale back dependence on imported oil. Petrol-only autos took 49% of the market, and diesel 11%.

Nearly all of dialogue on the NZ EV Fb web page has been in regards to the introduction of the street consumer cost (begins April 1st — no, not a joke, it actually does!).

A overview of the street consumer cost (RUC) by a NZ choose committee has come to those conclusions:

Re: plug-in hybrid EVs: “Nearly all of us think about {that a} 30% discount of the RUC price successfully accounts for any extra prices in gasoline excise responsibility.”

Re: the speed for EVs: “We perceive that very environment friendly autos pay lower than their fair proportion. We don’t imagine that amendments to the invoice can handle the underpayment by environment friendly petrol autos. We expect that the way in which to take action is to maneuver as shortly as doable to a system the place all autos pay RUC based mostly on distance and car weight.”

Re: the influence on local weather & EV uptake: “The RUC Act 2012 shouldn’t be supposed to encourage a transition to any explicit gasoline. As well as, we expect that the comparably low price paid by environment friendly petrol autos is the first explanation for any distortion.”

I agree — distance and weight needs to be the concerns and the RUC ought to apply to all autos. In broader information: extreme climate occasions, fuelled by local weather cost, are inflicting an estimated NZ$1.7 billion in injury to NZ roads — discouraging EV uptake won’t assist. The street consumer cost won’t fund it. Governments want to hunt higher options.

Rewiring New Zealand has produced a report (out there right here) with some nice graphs demonstrating the overall price of possession benefit of electrical vehicles charged at dwelling.

Excellent news: Tesla is constructing a brand new showroom in Auckland and is in search of extra employees to allow its enlargement. Extra excellent news: earlier this month, as a part of an article about Australia’s EV penetration, I included a photograph of a petroleum tank blocking chargers in a NZ nationwide park. Readers will probably be glad to know that the tank has now gone — however in an odd coincidence, so have the chargers. Maybe collateral injury in building?

In a 12 months of competing narratives, it’s a case of look ahead to the mud to settle and search knowledge. Is the uptake of EVs slowing? In NZ, sure. Globally, no. Some are rubbing their palms and saying: “Advised you so — simply an costly gimmick!” I’m taking a world view and awaiting the info as it’s revealed.