A lot has already been opined on the end result of COP28, and whereas the world’s foremost local weather convention is understood for spawning stress and frustration, this one appeared particularly fraught.
It’s not stunning. That is the primary COP the place we’re face-to-face with the fact of breaching the 1.5C warming restrict that was the central thesis of COP21. It was additionally the primary to be chaired by an oil and gasoline govt, placing a crude highlight on the conflicting pursuits which have turn into entrenched within the COP course of.
Certainly, the gathering was mired in controversy earlier than it even started, after it emerged that the United Arab Emirates had plans to make use of its place as host to do backroom oil offers. The tone wasn’t precisely improved when the convention president proclaimed {that a} fossil gas phaseout would “take us again into caves.”
Regardless of seemingly unsurpassable variations, a deal was reached on the eleventh hour (one other COP custom). And never desirous to miss our probability to chime in on the end result, we’re sharing our prime takeaways from this 12 months’s gathering:
The elephant within the room
The controversy about oil and gasoline’s presence on the local weather motion desk has reached new decibels. As many international locations and industries pivot to embrace the financial alternatives that accompany the vitality transition, oil and gasoline is arguably the final and largest elephant within the room. And this 12 months’s COP lastly regarded it within the eye.
The ultimate wording included a dedication to transition away from fossil fuels in vitality programs “in a simply, orderly and equitable method, accelerating motion on this vital decade, in order to realize web zero by 2050 consistent with the science.” It represented a big concession from the “section out” language that over 100 international locations had pushed for. The lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States described the deal as “an incremental development over enterprise as standard, when what we actually want is an exponential step change in our actions.”
And but, as many commentators have been fast to level out, some progress continues to be progress. To borrow the phrases of author Ketan Joshi, “COP’s consensus mannequin will solely spit out outcomes which might be the weakest and worst… (however) if absolutely the primary naked minimal is shifting in the suitable course, it’s possible the median is simply too.” The deal marks the primary time that many oil- and gas-producing nations have been keen to even have interaction in a dialogue about the way forward for fossil fuels—a transfer that some say would have been “unthinkable” simply two years in the past.
Canada confirmed management
Going into COP, Canada’s popularity on the local weather world stage had misplaced slightly of its lustre. Canada was publicly referred to as out on the UN’s September Local weather Ambition Summit for being “one of many largest expanders of fossil fuels final 12 months.” And through COP, the federal government of Alberta was awarded the satirical “Fossil of the Day” award by the International Local weather Motion Community for being “the most effective at being the worst and doing essentially the most to do the least.”
However throughout every week when many petrostates had been preventing to delay motion to cut back fossil fuels, Canada introduced the world’s first oil and gasoline emissions cap together with essential laws to curb methane emissions. The cap, as we stated on the time, is each essential and truthful and represents the final line of defence to make sure that Canada’s fossil gas trade doesn’t put the nation offside its local weather commitments. As the Globe and Mail’s Adam Radwanski put it, “Ottawa has ostensibly taken the home fossil-fuel sector at its phrase that it’s each keen and capable of extract oil and gasoline extra sustainably than its worldwide competitors. The ball is now in trade’s court docket.”
In different much less headline-generating (however nonetheless essential) information, Canada made a lot of agreements on industrial decarbonization. As a part of its membership to the Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative, Canada signed a brand new pledge to acquire low-emission metal, cement, and concrete in public building tasks, cementing Canada’s management in driving the worldwide decarbonization of heavy industries. In an identical vein, Canada co-led the Cement & Concrete Breakthrough Initiative to “allow international locations to share finest practices on a variety of insurance policies and different measures to decarbonize the cement and concrete sector.”
The {dollars} and cents
The convention kicked off with an settlement to pay loss and injury funds to growing international locations which might be battling the worst impacts of local weather change. The preliminary dedication totalled a fairly meagre US$429 million, with Canada committing an much more meagre $16 million. The timeline and measurement of replenishing of the fund was additionally not clear, elevating questions concerning the longevity and sincerity of the dedication. This loss and injury fund is separate to the yet-to-be-fulfilled local weather finance commitments made in COPs previous.
These loss and injury {dollars} paled into insignificance subsequent to a brand new US$30 billion fund introduced by COP President Sultan Al Jaber in collaboration with world asset managers BlackRock, Brookfield, and TPG. The brand new fund, dubbed ALTÉRRA, goals to draw $250 billion of funding by the tip of the last decade to “steer personal markets in the direction of local weather investments and deal with reworking rising markets and growing economies.”
The world embraces renewable energy
After the U.S. and China made a historic deal final month to triple renewable energy by 2030, 110 international locations—together with Canada—joined in. The brand new pledge, co-launched by the EU and the UAE, noticed international locations decide to tripling world renewable capability by the tip of the last decade. It’s indicative of the large leaps ahead in renewable energy era in recent times. The Worldwide Power Company has reported record-breaking quantities of renewables added to world electrical energy programs annually, whereas assume tank Ember not too long ago instructed that worldwide emissions from energy era might have already peaked.
However, as we wrote in a latest op-ed, this form of endorsement for variable renewables like wind and photo voltaic hasn’t been widespread in Canada during the last a number of years. Solely not too long ago have we seen Nova Scotia, Quebec, B.C., and Ontario lay plans for extra wind and photo voltaic, and even then, there have been stops and begins. Alberta, the photo voltaic capital of Canada, slapped a moratorium on new renewable growth, placing in danger each jobs and funding. With the worldwide winds powering a shift to renewable vitality, it’s excessive time Canadian political leaders shed any outdated concepts about renewables.
On the finish of one other tumultuous gathering, there’s maybe one important piece of widespread floor to be discovered. In his closing remarks, COP President Sultan Al Jaber stated, merely, “We’re what we do, not what we are saying.” For the primary time, the world has agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Now, we should do it.
This publish was co-authored by Keri McNamara.