Market and provide chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has an extended historical past of reporting on Apple provide chain particulars, has a new report on Medium about Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional. There are quite a few particulars of doubtful windfall, however all of them paint the image of a really low-volume product that gained’t transition to a well-liked, millions-of-sales-per-year product line for fairly a very long time.
In line with Kuo, preliminary demand was increased than anticipated however has slowed down loads. The headset, which is at present solely obtainable within the U.S., is anticipated to promote solely 200,000-250,000 items this 12 months. That’s a rise of about 50,000 over Apple’s prior inner estimates, based on Kuo, but it surely’s nonetheless a very area of interest product for Apple, which sells greater than 200 million iPhones a 12 months.
Kuo notes that a few of the small-capacity suppliers for Imaginative and prescient Professional elements have elevated their capability from 500,000–600,000 items to 700,000–800,000 items per 12 months. Capability doesn’t equal the precise variety of elements that might be ordered by Apple or produced, but it surely factors to Apple’s potential to make extra Imaginative and prescient Professional headsets than might be required for the U.S. market alone. Kuo believes that Apple will begin to promote the headset in different markets starting earlier than WWDC in June.
The return fee, based on Kuo, is lower than 1 %, which appears fairly good for such a fledgling product with restricted use. In line with his survey of the restore/refurbishment manufacturing line, about 20-30 % of these returns are as a result of clients not figuring out arrange Imaginative and prescient Professional, which is unquestionably a quantity Apple want to scale back. Ease of use and out-of-the-box setup is certainly one of Apple’s trademark options so its stunning to see so many individuals have hassle, even when it does nonetheless symbolize a really small variety of customers.
Kuo claims that Apple has not but begun work on the successor to the Imaginative and prescient Professional (extensively anticipated to be two items: an easier cost-reduced mannequin and one other excessive finish “Professional” mannequin). A brand new mannequin is anticipated to enter manufacturing on the finish of 2025 or early 2026, however that mannequin is anticipated to have very related specs to the present model. It’s as an alternative centered on bettering manufacturing effectivity and value, not altering the person expertise.
Apple is gathering suggestions from customers and builders to tell the long run Imaginative and prescient product roadmap, however Kuo says {that a} new product with a considerably modified person expertise most likely gained’t enter mass manufacturing till 2027. As for the present mannequin, the worldwide cargo forecast has risen from about half 1,000,000 items to 650-700,000 items, however that’s nonetheless a really area of interest product for Apple and a fraction of the amount competitor Meta sells with its Quest headsets (estimated to be within the 5-10 million per 12 months vary).
So for those who’re hoping to select up an “Apple Imaginative and prescient Air” for a worth nearer to $1,499 you’re going to be ready some time, at the very least based on Kuo.