Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new investor observe in the present day centered on his predictions for the iPhone in 2024. The Apple analyst says his newest provide chain survey suggests Apple has “lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor parts to about 200 million models.”
In keeping with Kuo, this marks a decline of round 15% year-over-year for iPhone shipments. He attributes this fall to components together with a slowdown of iPhone gross sales in China, writing that “Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30–40% YoY in latest weeks.”
Kuo continues:
iPhone 15 collection and new iPhone 16 collection shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (in comparison with iPhone 14 collection shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 collection shipments in 2H23, respectively).
The iPhone faces structural challenges that may result in a big decline in shipments in 2024, together with the emergence of a brand new paradigm in high-end cell phone design and the continued decline in shipments within the Chinese language market.
Waiting for the iPhone 16 lineup coming later this 12 months, Kuo says we shouldn’t count on vital design modifications or new synthetic intelligence options this 12 months.
“It’s anticipated that Apple won’t launch new iPhone fashions with vital design modifications and the extra complete/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/purposes till 2025 on the earliest,” he writes. “Till then, it can seemingly hurt Apple’s iPhone cargo momentum and ecosystem progress.”
9to5Mac’s Take
Take it with a grain of salt. Different rumors have urged the iPhone 16 lineup will function notable modifications such because the addition of a seize button and greater screens.
I discover Kuo’s reporting on the destiny of the iPhone a bit dramatic. I don’t assume the iPhone not having “extra complete/differentiated” generative AI purposes is an instance of Apple harming iPhone cargo momentum and ecosystem progress. Moreover, extra dependable sources like Bloomberg have reported quite a lot of occasions that Apple has vital new AI options deliberate for iOS 18 this fall.
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